Predicting the incidence of brucellosis in Western Iran using Markov switching model

Mohammadian‑Khoshnoud, Maryam and Sadeghifar, Majid and Cheraghi, zahra and Hosseinkhani, Zahra (2021) Predicting the incidence of brucellosis in Western Iran using Markov switching model. BMC Research Notes.

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Objective: Brucellosis is a zoonosis almost chronic disease. Brucellosis bacteria can remain in the environment for a long time. Thus, climate irregularities could pave the way for the survival of the bacterium brucellosis. Brucellosis is more common in men 25 to 29 years of age, in the western provinces, and in the spring months. The aim of this study is to investigate the efect of climatic factors as well as predicting the incidence of brucellosis in Qazvin prov‑ ince using the Markov switching model (MSM). This study is a secondary study of data collected from 2010 to 2019 in Qazvin province. The data include brucellosis cases and climatic parameters. Two state MSM with time lags of 0, 1 and 2 was ftted to the data. The Bayesian information criterion (BIC) was used to evaluate the models. Results: According to the BIC, the two‑state MSM with a 1‑month lag is a suitable model. The month, the average‑ wind‑speed, the minimum‑temperature have a positive efect on the number of brucellosis, the age and rainfall have a negative efect. The results show that the probability of an outbreak for the third month of 2019 is 0.30%.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: R Medicine > R Medicine (General)
Divisions: University Portal > research center > Metabolic
Depositing User: pr Metabolic diseases research
Date Deposited: 08 Nov 2022 06:43
Last Modified: 08 Nov 2022 06:43
URI: http://eprints.qums.ac.ir/id/eprint/12030

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